{"id":29899,"date":"2026-11-09T09:19:59","date_gmt":"2026-11-09T02:19:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/?p=29899"},"modified":"2026-11-09T09:19:59","modified_gmt":"2026-11-09T02:19:59","slug":"obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat-29899\/","title":{"rendered":"Pasar Obligasi AS Bangkit Usai Kemenangan Demokrat"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pasar obligasi pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS) melanjutkan penguatan setelah kemenangan Partai Demokrat dalam pemilu paruh waktu 2026 mengubah ekspektasi investor terhadap kebijakan fiskal, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan perkembangan industri kecerdasan buatan (AI).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penguatan tersebut terjadi ketika saham-saham teknologi mengalami tekanan akibat kekhawatiran bahwa perubahan politik dapat memperlambat investasi infrastruktur AI. Pada saat yang sama, penurunan harga minyak dan kemungkinan terbatasnya ekspansi belanja pemerintah AS turut memberikan dukungan terhadap pasar obligasi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yield obligasi pemerintah AS tenor 10 tahun kini berada di sekitar 4,8%, turun lebih dari setengah poin persentase dari level tertingginya pada awal Oktober. Namun, keberlanjutan reli masih akan diuji oleh data inflasi dan kebijakan suku bunga Federal Reserve (The Fed) dalam beberapa pekan mendatang.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Daftar Isi <\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat-29899\/#Obligasi_AS_Reli_Yield_Treasury_10_Tahun_Turun_Mendekati_48\" >Obligasi AS Reli, Yield Treasury 10 Tahun Turun Mendekati 4,8%\u00a0<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat-29899\/#Saham_AI_Tertekan_Harga_Minyak_Turun_Jadi_Pendorong_Obligasi\" >Saham AI Tertekan, Harga Minyak Turun Jadi Pendorong Obligasi<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat-29899\/#Inflasi_AS_dan_Kebijakan_The_Fed_Jadi_Ujian_Reli_Treasury\" >Inflasi AS dan Kebijakan The Fed Jadi Ujian Reli Treasury<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/obligasi-as-bangkit-kemenangan-demokrat-29899\/#Agenda_Pekan_Ini_CPI_PPI_dan_Lelang_Treasury_AS\" >Agenda Pekan Ini: CPI, PPI, dan Lelang Treasury AS\u00a0<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Obligasi_AS_Reli_Yield_Treasury_10_Tahun_Turun_Mendekati_48\"><\/span><b>Obligasi AS Reli, Yield Treasury 10 Tahun Turun Mendekati 4,8%\u00a0<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Obligasi pemerintah AS menjadi salah satu aset yang mendapat sentimen positif setelah Partai Demokrat memenangkan kendali Kongres dalam pemilu paruh waktu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut laporan Bloomberg pada 9 November 2026, perubahan komposisi politik tersebut mendorong investor mempertimbangkan kembali posisi mereka di pasar obligasi setelah aksi jual tajam yang berlangsung sepanjang tahun.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Reli Treasury telah berjalan hampir satu bulan, dengan yield obligasi tenor 10 tahun turun mendekati 4,8%. Level tersebut lebih dari 50 basis poin di bawah puncak yang tercatat pada awal Oktober.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penurunan yield mencerminkan kenaikan harga obligasi, karena harga dan imbal hasil obligasi bergerak berlawanan arah.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penguatan ini sebagian besar bertahan hingga akhir pekan lalu, meskipun laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS pada Jumat menunjukkan pertumbuhan lapangan kerja Oktober meningkat signifikan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa investor obligasi tidak hanya merespons perkembangan ekonomi terbaru, tetapi juga mulai memperhitungkan perubahan arah kebijakan setelah pemilu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Salah satu faktor pendukungnya adalah prospek pemerintahan yang terbagi secara politik. Dengan Kongres berada di bawah kendali Demokrat, Presiden Donald Trump diperkirakan menghadapi hambatan lebih besar untuk mengesahkan kebijakan pemotongan pajak atau belanja pemerintah berskala besar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perkembangan ini berpotensi mengurangi kekhawatiran mengenai ekspansi defisit fiskal AS, yang saat ini mencapai sekitar US$2 triliun per tahun atau setara 6% dari perekonomian.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Defisit yang lebih terkendali dapat membantu meredakan tekanan terhadap kebutuhan penerbitan utang pemerintah, meskipun pasokan Treasury tetap menjadi perhatian investor.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Saham_AI_Tertekan_Harga_Minyak_Turun_Jadi_Pendorong_Obligasi\"><\/span><b>Saham AI Tertekan, Harga Minyak Turun Jadi Pendorong Obligasi<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selain perubahan ekspektasi fiskal, tekanan terhadap saham-saham teknologi turut mendukung penguatan pasar obligasi AS. Kemenangan Demokrat memunculkan spekulasi bahwa pemerintahan dan Kongres baru akan memperketat pengawasan terhadap pengembangan pusat data serta investasi infrastruktur AI.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Kekhawatiran tersebut menekan saham perusahaan teknologi yang sebelumnya menjadi penggerak utama kenaikan pasar saham AS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Booming AI dalam beberapa tahun terakhir tidak hanya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi juga meningkatkan kebutuhan pembiayaan perusahaan untuk pembangunan pusat data, pembelian chip, dan pengembangan infrastruktur komputasi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Besarnya investasi tersebut turut meningkatkan penerbitan utang korporasi, sekaligus memperkuat kekhawatiran terhadap tekanan inflasi dan suku bunga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Apabila ekspansi AI melambat, sebagian tekanan terhadap pertumbuhan nominal ekonomi, kebutuhan pembiayaan, dan inflasi berpotensi berkurang. Kondisi tersebut dapat mendukung pasar obligasi, terutama jika investor memperkirakan ruang pelonggaran moneter akan meningkat pada masa mendatang.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Namun, perlambatan investasi AI masih merupakan ekspektasi pasar, bukan perubahan yang telah terkonfirmasi dalam pengeluaran perusahaan teknologi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Faktor lain yang mendukung reli obligasi adalah <\/span><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/blog\/berita\/harga-minyak-anjlok-berharap-perang-iran-mereda-29644\/\">penurunan harga minyak mentah<\/a>.<\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Menurut Bloomberg, harga minyak melemah karena spekulasi bahwa kekalahan Partai Republik dapat mempercepat penyelesaian konflik dengan Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sebelumnya, gangguan pasokan energi akibat perang Iran telah mendorong harga minyak dan memperbesar tekanan inflasi, sehingga memicu aksi jual obligasi sekitar delapan bulan lalu. Penurunan harga minyak dapat membantu meredakan tekanan harga energi, salah satu komponen yang memengaruhi inflasi AS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meski demikian, prospek penyelesaian konflik Iran masih belum pasti. Perubahan situasi geopolitik dan harga energi tetap dapat memengaruhi arah yield Treasury.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Inflasi_AS_dan_Kebijakan_The_Fed_Jadi_Ujian_Reli_Treasury\"><\/span><b>Inflasi AS dan Kebijakan The Fed Jadi Ujian Reli Treasury<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Walaupun pasar obligasi menunjukkan pemulihan, sejumlah analis menilai kenaikannya berpotensi terlalu cepat dibandingkan perubahan fundamental ekonomi. Salah satu risiko utama berasal dari kebijakan Federal Reserve yang masih menghadapi inflasi di atas target 2%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut Bloomberg, pasar memperkirakan The Fed akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga pada pertemuan bulan berikutnya. Ekspektasi tersebut dapat membatasi penurunan yield Treasury apabila data ekonomi tetap menunjukkan tekanan harga yang kuat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perhatian investor kini tertuju pada rilis Indeks Harga Konsumen atau Consumer Price Index (CPI) AS untuk Oktober yang dijadwalkan pada Selasa, 10 November 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Para ekonom memperkirakan inflasi bulanan akan melambat dibandingkan periode sebelumnya. Namun, angka inflasi tahunan tidak akan tersedia karena penutupan pemerintahan tahun lalu mengganggu proses pengumpulan data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selain CPI, investor akan memantau Indeks Harga Produsen atau Producer Price Index (PPI) pada Jumat, 13 November, untuk memperoleh gambaran tambahan mengenai tekanan harga di tingkat produsen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data tenaga kerja juga menjadi faktor penting. Pertumbuhan lapangan kerja yang lebih kuat dapat menunjukkan ketahanan ekonomi AS, tetapi sekaligus mengurangi peluang pelonggaran suku bunga dalam waktu dekat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pergerakan yield Treasury akan sangat dipengaruhi oleh keseimbangan antara prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, dan arah kebijakan moneter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Jika inflasi melambat lebih cepat dari perkiraan, pasar obligasi berpotensi memperoleh dukungan tambahan. Sebaliknya, data harga yang lebih tinggi dapat memicu penyesuaian ekspektasi suku bunga dan menekan harga obligasi.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Agenda_Pekan_Ini_CPI_PPI_dan_Lelang_Treasury_AS\"><\/span><b>Agenda Pekan Ini: CPI, PPI, dan Lelang Treasury AS\u00a0<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selain data inflasi, pasar obligasi AS akan menghadapi peningkatan pasokan surat utang pemerintah melalui lelang refinancing triwulanan Departemen Keuangan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Lelang dimulai pada Senin, 9 November, untuk Treasury tenor 3 tahun, dilanjutkan tenor 10 tahun pada Selasa, 10 November, dan tenor 30 tahun pada Kamis, 12 November. Pasar perdagangan tunai obligasi pemerintah AS akan tutup pada Rabu, 11 November, dalam rangka Hari Veteran.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Permintaan investor dalam lelang tersebut akan menjadi indikator penting untuk menilai minat pasar terhadap Treasury pada tingkat yield saat ini.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Berikut agenda ekonomi dan pasar obligasi AS yang perlu dicermati sepanjang pekan 9-13 November 2026.<\/span><\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-352\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-352\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\"><strong>Tanggal<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"column-2\"><strong>Agenda utama<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">9 November<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Ekspektasi inflasi konsumen Fed New York, data perdagangan grosir, dan lelang Treasury 3 tahun<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">10 November<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">CPI Oktober, optimisme usaha kecil NFIB, data ketenagakerjaan mingguan ADP, dan lelang Treasury 10 tahun<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">11 November<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Libur Hari Veteran, pasar tunai Treasury tutup<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">12 November<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Klaim pengangguran awal, penjualan rumah existing, saldo anggaran federal, dan lelang Treasury 30 tahun<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">13 November<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">PPI Oktober dan pernyataan sejumlah pejabat The Fed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-352 from cache -->\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sejumlah pejabat The Fed, termasuk Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, John Williams, dan Philip Jefferson, juga dijadwalkan memberikan pernyataan sepanjang pekan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Komentar mereka dapat memberikan gambaran mengenai bagaimana bank sentral menilai perkembangan inflasi, pasar tenaga kerja, dan kebutuhan penyesuaian suku bunga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Di luar Treasury yang diperdagangkan di pasar, obligasi tabungan pemerintah AS Seri I juga menawarkan tingkat bunga gabungan sebesar 5,51% untuk penerbitan 1 November 2026 hingga 30 April 2027, naik dari 4,26%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Instrumen tersebut memiliki tingkat bunga tetap 1,40% dan komponen bunga yang disesuaikan dengan inflasi setiap enam bulan. Berbeda dari Treasury yang diperdagangkan di pasar, obligasi Seri I tidak dapat dicairkan selama 12 bulan pertama dan dikenakan penalti bunga tiga bulan apabila dicairkan sebelum lima tahun.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tingkat bunga Seri I tersebut mencerminkan daya tarik instrumen tabungan yang memiliki perlindungan terhadap inflasi, tetapi tidak dapat dibandingkan secara langsung dengan yield Treasury 10 tahun karena struktur, likuiditas, dan karakteristik investasinya berbeda.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bagi investor, kombinasi data inflasi, arah kebijakan The Fed, dan permintaan dalam lelang Treasury akan menjadi penentu apakah reli obligasi AS dapat berlanjut setelah perubahan politik di Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"background: linear-gradient(135deg,#19233F 0%,#292967 100%); border-radius: 18px; padding: 28px 24px; margin: 32px 0; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: left;\">\n<div style=\"display: inline-block; background: #303A59; border: 1px solid #56617D; border-radius: 999px; padding: 7px 14px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: #eaf0ff; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4;\">MARKET UPDATE \u2022 NANOVEST<\/div>\n<p style=\"margin: 0 0 12px; color: #ffffff; font-size: 20px; line-height: 1.4; font-weight: 800;\">Obligasi AS Reli, Saatnya Pantau Wall Street!<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin: 0 0 22px; color: #dce2f5; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7;\">Dari pergerakan yield Treasury hingga arah suku bunga The Fed, perkembangan ekonomi AS bisa memengaruhi pasar saham global. Pantau saham-saham AS dan eksplorasi investasi melalui Nanovest. Ikuti juga update inflasi, kebijakan moneter, dan sentimen Wall Street lewat News &amp; Artikel Tips.<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 12px; align-items: center;\">\n<p><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #7C3AED; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; padding: 12px 19px; border-radius: 9px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Eksplorasi Saham AS \u2192<br \/>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #FFFFFF; color: #292967; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; padding: 12px 19px; border-radius: 9px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News &amp; Artikel Tips \u2192<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pasar obligasi pemerintah Amerika Serikat (AS) melanjutkan penguatan setelah kemenangan Partai Demokrat dalam pemilu paruh waktu 2026 mengubah ekspektasi investor terhadap kebijakan fiskal, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan perkembangan industri kecerdasan buatan (AI). Penguatan tersebut terjadi ketika saham-saham teknologi mengalami tekanan akibat kekhawatiran bahwa perubahan politik dapat memperlambat investasi infrastruktur AI. Pada saat yang sama, penurunan harga<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":29906,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[80],"tags":[74,826],"class_list":["post-29899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-berita","tag-berita","tag-obligasi-as"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Obligasi AS reli usai kemenangan Demokrat, yield Treasury 10 tahun turun dekati 4,8%. 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