{"id":29887,"date":"2026-11-09T00:14:30","date_gmt":"2026-11-08T17:14:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/?p=29887"},"modified":"2026-11-09T00:14:30","modified_gmt":"2026-11-08T17:14:30","slug":"pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026-29887\/","title":{"rendered":"Pengaruh The Fed terhadap Pasar Dipertanyakan Usai Pemilu AS 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pengaruh Federal Reserve (The Fed) terhadap pasar keuangan kembali menjadi perdebatan setelah pemilu paruh waktu Amerika Serikat pada 3 November 2026. Kontributor Forbes, John Tamny, menilai peran bank sentral AS tidak sebesar yang selama ini diyakini dalam menentukan arah perekonomian. Menurutnya, aktivitas produksi dan ekonomi riil memiliki peran lebih mendasar dalam peredaran uang.<\/p>\n<p>Pandangan tersebut disampaikan Tamny dalam artikel Forbes berjudul <em>Milton Friedman Was Incorrect About The Fed.<\/em> <em>November 4th Shows Why<\/em>, yang diterbitkan pada 8 November 2026. Ia menggunakan respons pasar setelah pemilu sebagai salah satu dasar untuk mempertanyakan dominasi kebijakan moneter dalam menentukan arah investasi.<\/p>\n<p>Perdebatan ini relevan bagi investor Indonesia karena perubahan ekspektasi terhadap ekonomi AS dapat memengaruhi dolar, imbal hasil obligasi Treasury, arus modal asing, dan nilai tukar rupiah.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Daftar Isi <\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026-29887\/#Perdebatan_tentang_Peran_The_Fed_dalam_Perekonomian\" >Perdebatan tentang Peran The Fed dalam Perekonomian<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026-29887\/#Pemilu_AS_Mengubah_Ekspektasi_Pasar\" >Pemilu AS Mengubah Ekspektasi Pasar<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026-29887\/#Relevansinya_bagi_Rupiah_dan_IHSG\" >Relevansinya bagi Rupiah dan IHSG<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pengaruh-the-fed-pasar-pemilu-as-2026-29887\/#Pengaruh_The_Fed_Tetap_Menjadi_Faktor_Penting\" >Pengaruh The Fed Tetap Menjadi Faktor Penting<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Perdebatan_tentang_Peran_The_Fed_dalam_Perekonomian\"><\/span>Perdebatan tentang Peran The Fed dalam Perekonomian<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Tamny mengkritik pandangan Milton Friedman dan Anna Schwartz yang menghubungkan kontraksi jumlah uang beredar dengan memburuknya Depresi Besar pada 1930-an. Dalam analisisnya, Tamny menekankan bahwa peredaran uang berkaitan erat dengan kegiatan produksi dan transaksi ekonomi, bukan semata-mata keputusan bank sentral.<\/p>\n<p>Perspektif tersebut berbeda dari penjelasan historis yang banyak digunakan dalam kajian ekonomi. Federal Reserve History mencatat bahwa kegagalan The Fed menangani krisis perbankan turut memperburuk Depresi Besar. Jumlah uang beredar AS bahkan turun hampir 30% antara 1930 dan 1933.<\/p>\n<p>Karena itu, pandangan Tamny perlu dipahami sebagai kritik terhadap teori moneter, bukan kesimpulan bahwa kebijakan The Fed tidak lagi berpengaruh. Kebijakan suku bunga dan likuiditas tetap menjadi bagian penting dari kondisi keuangan, meskipun bukan satu-satunya faktor penggerak ekonomi.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Pemilu_AS_Mengubah_Ekspektasi_Pasar\"><\/span>Pemilu AS Mengubah Ekspektasi Pasar<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pemilu paruh waktu AS pada 3 November 2026 menghasilkan kemenangan Partai Demokrat di DPR dan Senat, sementara Donald Trump tetap menjabat sebagai presiden. Komposisi tersebut membuka kemungkinan terjadinya <em>divided government<\/em>, yaitu kondisi ketika presiden dan mayoritas Kongres berasal dari partai berbeda.<\/p>\n<p>Situasi ini dapat membatasi ruang pemerintah untuk mendorong sejumlah agenda fiskal dan regulasi. Bagi investor, perubahan komposisi Kongres menjadi pertimbangan dalam memperkirakan arah kebijakan ekonomi dan perdagangan AS.<\/p>\n<p>Respons pasar pada 4 November juga menunjukkan bahwa faktor politik dapat memengaruhi aset keuangan. Reuters melaporkan dolar AS melemah dan imbal hasil Treasury 10 tahun turun sekitar 5 basis poin. Indeks saham negara berkembang sempat tertekan sebelum berbalik naik 0,4%.<\/p>\n<p>Pergerakan tersebut menunjukkan perubahan ekspektasi investor setelah pemilu. Namun, satu sesi perdagangan tidak cukup untuk menyimpulkan bahwa pengaruh The Fed telah berkurang secara permanen.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Relevansinya_bagi_Rupiah_dan_IHSG\"><\/span>Relevansinya bagi Rupiah dan IHSG<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Perubahan ekspektasi terhadap kebijakan ekonomi AS dapat diteruskan ke Indonesia melalui pasar valuta asing dan obligasi. Dolar yang menguat serta kenaikan imbal hasil Treasury berpotensi membuat aset berdenominasi dolar lebih menarik bagi investor global. Dalam kondisi tertentu, hal ini dapat meningkatkan tekanan terhadap mata uang dan aset negara berkembang.<\/p>\n<p>Sebaliknya, pelemahan dolar dan penurunan imbal hasil obligasi AS dapat memperbaiki daya tarik relatif pasar negara berkembang. Meski demikian, dampaknya terhadap rupiah dan IHSG tetap bergantung pada kondisi domestik, termasuk kebijakan Bank Indonesia, inflasi, pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan kinerja emiten.<\/p>\n<p>Dengan demikian, investor Indonesia tidak cukup hanya mengikuti pernyataan pejabat The Fed atau jadwal keputusan suku bunga. Perkembangan politik AS, pergerakan Treasury, nilai dolar, dan arus modal asing juga perlu dibaca sebagai bagian dari gambaran pasar yang lebih luas.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Pengaruh_The_Fed_Tetap_Menjadi_Faktor_Penting\"><\/span>Pengaruh The Fed Tetap Menjadi Faktor Penting<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Pemilu AS 2026 memperlihatkan bahwa sentimen politik dan ekspektasi kebijakan pemerintah dapat menggerakkan pasar keuangan. Namun, hal tersebut tidak menghapus peran The Fed dalam memengaruhi kondisi likuiditas, biaya pinjaman, dan daya tarik aset global.<\/p>\n<p>Bagi investor Indonesia, inti persoalannya bukan memilih antara faktor politik atau kebijakan moneter, melainkan memahami bagaimana keduanya berinteraksi dan memengaruhi pasar. Perkembangan pasar saham dan aset keuangan dapat dipantau melalui Aplikasi <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/\">Nanovest<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pengaruh Federal Reserve (The Fed) terhadap pasar keuangan kembali menjadi perdebatan setelah pemilu paruh waktu Amerika Serikat pada 3 November 2026. Kontributor Forbes, John Tamny, menilai peran bank sentral AS tidak sebesar yang selama ini diyakini dalam menentukan arah perekonomian. Menurutnya, aktivitas produksi dan ekonomi riil memiliki peran lebih mendasar dalam peredaran uang. Pandangan tersebut<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":29888,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[80,38],"tags":[764,725,102],"class_list":["post-29887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-berita","category-kripto","tag-dolar-as","tag-ihsg","tag-the-fed"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pengaruh The Fed terhadap pasar kembali dipertanyakan setelah pemilu AS 2026. 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