{"id":28595,"date":"2026-10-26T09:11:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-26T02:11:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/?p=28595"},"modified":"2026-10-26T09:11:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T02:11:23","slug":"pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/","title":{"rendered":"Pekan The Fed: Inflasi, PDB, dan Arah Wall Street"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Wall Street memasuki pekan terakhir Oktober 2026 dengan perhatian tertuju pada keputusan suku bunga The Federal Reserve (The Fed), perkembangan inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS), serta prospek saham teknologi di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap keberlanjutan investasi kecerdasan buatan (AI).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meski sejumlah katalis tersebut berpotensi memicu pergerakan pasar, volatilitas indeks S&amp;P 500 sejauh ini relatif tertahan oleh aktivitas perdagangan opsi jangka pendek. Di sisi lain, ekspektasi investor terhadap kebijakan moneter terus berubah mengikuti data ekonomi dan pernyataan pejabat bank sentral.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menjelang keputusan Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pada Rabu, 28 Oktober 2026, pelaku pasar kini semakin memperkirakan The Fed akan mempertahankan suku bunga, setelah sebelumnya sempat mengantisipasi kenaikan lanjutan.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Daftar Isi <\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/#Peluang_Kenaikan_Suku_Bunga_The_Fed_Turun_di_Bawah_15\" >Peluang Kenaikan Suku Bunga The Fed Turun di Bawah 15%<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/#Sinyal_The_Fed_dan_Data_Inflasi_Belum_Sepenuhnya_Sejalan\" >Sinyal The Fed dan Data Inflasi Belum Sepenuhnya Sejalan<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/#Perdagangan_Opsi_Zero-Day_Bantu_Menahan_Volatilitas_S_P_500\" >Perdagangan Opsi Zero-Day Bantu Menahan Volatilitas S&amp;P 500<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/#Agenda_Ekonomi_AS_Pekan_Ini_Jadi_Penentu_Sentimen_Wall_Street\" >Agenda Ekonomi AS Pekan Ini Jadi Penentu Sentimen Wall Street<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/berita\/pekan-the-fed-inflasi-pdb-arah-wall-street-28595\/#The_Fed_Jadi_Sorotan_Pantau_Peluang_Saham_AS\" >The Fed Jadi Sorotan. Pantau Peluang Saham AS!<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Peluang_Kenaikan_Suku_Bunga_The_Fed_Turun_di_Bawah_15\"><\/span><b>Peluang Kenaikan Suku Bunga The Fed Turun di Bawah 15%<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekspektasi pasar terhadap kebijakan The Fed mengalami perubahan signifikan sepanjang Oktober. Setelah bank sentral AS menaikkan suku bunga pada September untuk pertama kalinya dalam tiga tahun, investor awalnya memperkirakan pengetatan moneter masih akan berlanjut pada Oktober dan kemungkinan Desember.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ekspektasi tersebut muncul di tengah inflasi yang masih melampaui target The Fed dan aksi jual obligasi pemerintah AS yang mendorong kenaikan imbal hasil atau yield.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Namun, sejumlah pernyataan pejabat The Fed mulai meredam perkiraan kenaikan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pada 29 September, Presiden Federal Reserve New York John Williams mengindikasikan bahwa satu kenaikan tambahan menjelang akhir tahun mungkin diperlukan. Pernyataan tersebut menurunkan probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga Oktober dari sekitar 70% menjadi 50%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selanjutnya, Wakil Ketua The Fed Philip Jefferson pada 1 Oktober menyarankan agar bank sentral mengambil lebih banyak waktu sebelum memutuskan pengetatan tambahan. Probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga kemudian turun mendekati 25%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pandangan serupa disampaikan Gubernur The Fed Christopher Waller pada 8 Oktober, yang menilai pengetatan kebijakan tidak harus dilakukan dalam pertemuan berturut-turut.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perubahan ekspektasi semakin terlihat setelah rilis data inflasi pada 14 Oktober menunjukkan pertumbuhan harga tercepat dalam lima bulan. Peluang kenaikan suku bunga sempat melonjak menjadi sekitar 50%, dari sekitar 20% sebelum laporan dirilis, tetapi kembali turun pada akhir perdagangan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut laporan Bloomberg pada 25 Oktober, probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga pada pertemuan Oktober kini berada di bawah 15%, berdasarkan pergerakan pasar swap suku bunga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Penurunan tersebut juga dipengaruhi pelemahan saham-saham AI dan meningkatnya kekhawatiran terhadap prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi AS apabila ekspansi investasi kecerdasan buatan mulai kehilangan momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Sinyal_The_Fed_dan_Data_Inflasi_Belum_Sepenuhnya_Sejalan\"><\/span><b>Sinyal The Fed dan Data Inflasi Belum Sepenuhnya Sejalan<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perubahan ekspektasi pasar memperlihatkan tantangan komunikasi yang dihadapi The Fed menjelang keputusan kebijakan moneter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Di satu sisi, data inflasi terbaru masih menunjukkan tekanan harga yang dapat mendukung pengetatan tambahan. Di sisi lain, sejumlah pejabat bank sentral memberikan sinyal bahwa kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya tidak perlu dilakukan secara terburu-buru.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ketua The Fed Kevin Warsh juga menekankan pendekatan komunikasi yang berbeda. Dalam pertemuan tahunan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) di Bangkok pada 16 Oktober, Warsh menyatakan bahwa dirinya tidak ingin memberikan petunjuk mengenai keputusan suku bunga sebelum pertemuan berlangsung.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pendekatan tersebut mencerminkan upaya mengurangi ketergantungan pasar pada forward guidance, yaitu komunikasi bank sentral mengenai kemungkinan arah kebijakan moneter di masa mendatang.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meski demikian, pasar masih menggunakan pernyataan pejabat The Fed sebagai acuan utama dalam memperkirakan keputusan suku bunga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sejumlah ekonom menilai komunikasi tersebut membantu mencegah pasar memperkirakan pengetatan yang terlalu agresif. Namun, perbedaan antara sinyal kebijakan dan perkembangan data ekonomi juga dapat meningkatkan risiko volatilitas apabila keputusan aktual tidak sesuai ekspektasi investor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Untuk saat ini, ekspektasi inflasi jangka panjang yang relatif terkendali menjadi salah satu faktor yang mendukung pendekatan lebih berhati-hati. Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa rumah tangga dan pelaku usaha masih memiliki keyakinan terhadap kemampuan The Fed dalam mengendalikan inflasi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dengan demikian, perhatian pasar tidak hanya tertuju pada keputusan suku bunga 28 Oktober, tetapi juga pada penjelasan The Fed mengenai tren inflasi, kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan kemungkinan langkah kebijakan berikutnya.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Perdagangan_Opsi_Zero-Day_Bantu_Menahan_Volatilitas_S_P_500\"><\/span><b>Perdagangan Opsi Zero-Day Bantu Menahan Volatilitas S&amp;P 500<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Di tengah ketidakpastian kebijakan moneter, aktivitas perdagangan derivatif turut memengaruhi pergerakan indeks saham AS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Laporan Bloomberg yang mengutip analisis UBS Group menunjukkan bahwa trader opsi <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">zero days to expiration <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(0DTE), yaitu kontrak opsi yang kedaluwarsa pada hari perdagangan yang sama, semakin banyak menerapkan strategi berlawanan dengan arah pergerakan pasar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ketika S&amp;P 500 melemah, trader cenderung membeli opsi beli (<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">call<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">) dan menjual opsi jual (<\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">put<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">).<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Sebaliknya, ketika indeks menguat, mereka melakukan transaksi dengan arah berlawanan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Strategi yang disebut <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">counter-trend delta bias<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> ini secara efektif menciptakan aktivitas pembelian saat harga turun dan penjualan saat harga naik, sehingga membantu membatasi fluktuasi indeks.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Pengaruhnya semakin besar seiring meningkatnya popularitas perdagangan opsi berjangka sangat pendek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Menurut data OptionMetrics, sekitar 66% volume perdagangan opsi S&amp;P 500 kini berasal dari kontrak yang berakhir dalam satu hari. Kondisi tersebut menjadikan posisi opsi jangka pendek sebagai salah satu faktor penting dalam menentukan pergerakan harian indeks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">UBS juga mencatat bahwa dampak bersih aktivitas perdagangan 0DTE yang berlawanan dengan tren kini melampaui pengaruh penyesuaian lindung nilai oleh dealer opsi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Namun, efek stabilisasi tersebut tidak selalu bertahan. Jika pasar mengalami aksi jual berkepanjangan, trader dapat beralih mengikuti momentum penurunan dengan membeli opsi put. Perubahan strategi ini justru berpotensi memperbesar tekanan jual dan meningkatkan volatilitas.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Perbedaan dinamika juga terlihat pada sektor teknologi, termasuk semikonduktor, di mana perdagangan opsi jangka pendek dalam kondisi tertentu dapat memperkuat momentum kenaikan maupun penurunan harga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Artinya, pergerakan S&amp;P 500 yang relatif tenang belum tentu mencerminkan berkurangnya seluruh risiko pasar, terutama menjelang pengumuman kebijakan moneter dan perkembangan penting sektor AI.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Agenda_Ekonomi_AS_Pekan_Ini_Jadi_Penentu_Sentimen_Wall_Street\"><\/span><b>Agenda Ekonomi AS Pekan Ini Jadi Penentu Sentimen Wall Street<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Pekan 26-30 Oktober 2026 menghadirkan sejumlah agenda ekonomi penting yang berpotensi memengaruhi ekspektasi suku bunga dan pergerakan Wall Street.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Selain keputusan FOMC, investor akan mencermati data pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, pasar tenaga kerja, dan aktivitas bisnis AS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Berikut agenda utama yang perlu diperhatikan:<\/span><\/p>\n\n<table id=\"tablepress-304\" class=\"tablepress tablepress-id-304\">\n<thead>\n<tr class=\"row-1\">\n\t<th class=\"column-1\"><strong>Tanggal<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"column-2\"><strong>Agenda Ekonomi<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody class=\"row-striping row-hover\">\n<tr class=\"row-2\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">26 Oktober<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Chicago Fed National Activity Index dan aktivitas manufaktur Dallas Fed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-3\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">27 Oktober<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Perubahan lapangan kerja mingguan ADP, pesanan barang tahan lama, kepercayaan konsumen Conference Board, dan penjualan rumah baru<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-4\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">28 Oktober<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Keputusan suku bunga FOMC, permohonan hipotek MBA, dan data awal perdagangan barang<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-5\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">29 Oktober<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Indeks harga Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), PDB AS, pendapatan dan pengeluaran pribadi, serta klaim pengangguran awal<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"row-6\">\n\t<td class=\"column-1\">30 Oktober<\/td><td class=\"column-2\">Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, serta pernyataan pejabat The Fed Mary Daly dan Alberto Musalem<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<!-- #tablepress-304 from cache -->\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dari seluruh agenda tersebut, keputusan FOMC dan rilis indeks harga PCE menjadi dua perhatian utama karena berkaitan langsung dengan arah kebijakan moneter AS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Sementara itu, data PDB dan konsumsi pribadi dapat memberikan gambaran mengenai ketahanan aktivitas ekonomi setelah periode kenaikan suku bunga.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Investor juga akan mencermati perkembangan saham teknologi dan laporan kinerja perusahaan terkait AI, mengingat kekhawatiran terhadap besarnya belanja infrastruktur kecerdasan buatan telah menjadi salah satu faktor yang menekan pasar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Dengan probabilitas kenaikan suku bunga Oktober yang semakin kecil, perhatian investor kini bergeser pada apakah The Fed akan mempertahankan pendekatan hati-hati atau kembali membuka peluang pengetatan apabila inflasi tetap tinggi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Di tengah kombinasi faktor fundamental dan dinamika perdagangan opsi, keputusan The Fed serta data ekonomi pekan ini berpotensi menjadi katalis penting bagi arah Wall Street menjelang akhir Oktober.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"background: linear-gradient(135deg,#19233F 0%,#292967 100%); border-radius: 20px; padding: 28px 24px; margin: 32px 0; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: left;\">\n<div style=\"display: inline-block; background: #303A59; border: 1px solid #56617D; border-radius: 999px; padding: 7px 14px; margin-bottom: 16px; color: #eaf0ff; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 1.4;\">\ud83d\udcc8 Market Update \u2022 Wall Street<\/div>\n<h3 style=\"margin: 0 0 12px; color: #ffffff; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.35; font-weight: 800;\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The_Fed_Jadi_Sorotan_Pantau_Peluang_Saham_AS\"><\/span>The Fed Jadi Sorotan. Pantau Peluang Saham AS!<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"margin: 0 0 24px; color: #dce2f5; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.7;\">Keputusan suku bunga The Fed dan data ekonomi AS berpotensi menggerakkan Wall Street. Jelajahi saham AS melalui Nanovest dan ikuti perkembangan pasar terbaru lewat News &amp; Artikel Tips.<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; gap: 12px; align-items: center;\">\n<p><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #7C3AED; color: #ffffff; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; padding: 12px 19px; border-radius: 9px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jelajahi Saham AS \u2192<br \/>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a style=\"display: inline-block; background: #FFFFFF; color: #292967; text-decoration: none; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; padding: 12px 19px; border-radius: 9px; text-align: center; line-height: 1.5;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">News &amp; Artikel Tips \u2192<br \/>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"margin: 20px 0 0; color: #b8c2dd; font-size: 11px; line-height: 1.6;\">Investasi saham mengandung risiko, termasuk volatilitas harga dan potensi kehilangan modal. Pelajari fundamental perusahaan dan sesuaikan keputusan dengan profil risikomu.<span style=\"color: #333333; font-size: 14px;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wall Street memasuki pekan terakhir Oktober 2026 dengan perhatian tertuju pada keputusan suku bunga The Federal Reserve (The Fed), perkembangan inflasi Amerika Serikat (AS), serta prospek saham teknologi di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap keberlanjutan investasi kecerdasan buatan (AI). Meski sejumlah katalis tersebut berpotensi memicu pergerakan pasar, volatilitas indeks S&amp;P 500 sejauh ini relatif tertahan oleh aktivitas<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":35,"featured_media":28596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[80,39],"tags":[74,102],"class_list":["post-28595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-berita","category-saham-as","tag-berita","tag-the-fed"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed diprediksi menahan suku bunga pada 28 Oktober 2026. 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