{"id":25964,"date":"2026-09-24T02:07:25","date_gmt":"2026-09-23T19:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/?p=25964"},"modified":"2026-09-24T10:05:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T03:05:25","slug":"bitcoin-future-trade-senilai-156-miliar-akan-kedaluwarsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/kripto\/bitcoin-future-trade-senilai-156-miliar-akan-kedaluwarsa-25964\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Future Trade Senilai $15,6 Miliar Akan Kedaluwarsa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Pasar aset digital bersiap menghadapi salah satu agenda derivatif terbesar pekan ini. Sekitar 182.000 BTC dalam kontrak Bitcoin options dengan nilai notional hampir US$15,6 miliar dijadwalkan kedaluwarsa di Deribit pada Jumat, 25 September 2026.<\/p>\n<p>Data Deribit yang dihimpun Decrypt menunjukkan kontrak tersebut terdiri dari sekitar 106.200 call options dan 75.900 put options, menghasilkan <em>put-to-call ratio<\/em> sekitar 0,71. Komposisi tersebut menunjukkan jumlah kontrak call lebih besar dibandingkan put menjelang settlement.<\/p>\n<p>Namun, nilai US$15,6 miliar bukan berarti dana sebesar itu akan berpindah tangan pada Jumat. Angka tersebut merupakan nilai <em>notional<\/em> Bitcoin yang direpresentasikan oleh seluruh kontrak yang akan jatuh tempo.<\/p>\n<p>Besarnya posisi yang berakhir secara bersamaan tetap menjadi perhatian karena proses settlement dapat mengubah aktivitas hedging dan posisi pelaku pasar derivatif, terutama ketika Bitcoin berada di sekitar US$85.000.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_89 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Daftar Isi <\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/kripto\/bitcoin-future-trade-senilai-156-miliar-akan-kedaluwarsa-25964\/#US76000_Jadi_Level_Max_Pain\" >US$76.000 Jadi Level Max Pain<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/kripto\/bitcoin-future-trade-senilai-156-miliar-akan-kedaluwarsa-25964\/#Hedging_Bisa_Berubah_Setelah_Options_Berakhir\" >Hedging Bisa Berubah Setelah Options Berakhir<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io/blog\/kripto\/bitcoin-future-trade-senilai-156-miliar-akan-kedaluwarsa-25964\/#Jumat_Jadi_Hari_Padat_bagi_Bitcoin\" >Jumat Jadi Hari Padat bagi Bitcoin<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"US76000_Jadi_Level_Max_Pain\"><\/span>US$76.000 Jadi Level Max Pain<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Salah satu level yang banyak diperhatikan menjelang kedaluwarsa options adalah max pain. Berdasarkan dashboard Deribit, level tersebut berada di sekitar US$76.000, atau sekitar US$9.000 di bawah harga Bitcoin yang berada di kisaran US$85.000 ketika laporan Decrypt diterbitkan.<\/p>\n<p><em>Max pain<\/em> merupakan harga ketika jumlah terbesar kontrak <em>options<\/em> akan berakhir tanpa nilai atau <em>out of the money<\/em>. Meski sering digunakan sebagai salah satu referensi oleh trader derivatif, level tersebut tidak selalu menjadi prediktor yang akurat terhadap harga Bitcoin saat settlement.<\/p>\n<p>Konsentrasi posisi juga memberikan gambaran mengenai area harga yang menjadi perhatian pasar. Strike US$70.000 menjadi yang paling padat, dengan sekitar 8.705 BTC dalam <em>call options<\/em> dan 7.653 BTC dalam put options.<\/p>\n<p>Di sisi <em>call<\/em>, posisi besar berikutnya berada pada strike US$90.000 dengan 7.222 BTC dan US$100.000 dengan 6.950 BTC. Sementara itu, put options dalam jumlah besar juga terkonsentrasi pada US$60.000 sebanyak 5.571 BTC dan US$75.000 sebanyak 4.257 BTC.<\/p>\n<p>Distribusi tersebut tidak secara otomatis menentukan ke mana harga Bitcoin akan bergerak, tetapi dapat membantu menunjukkan level-level tempat eksposur <em>options<\/em> dan aktivitas <em>hedging<\/em> terkonsentrasi menjelang <em>settlement<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Hedging_Bisa_Berubah_Setelah_Options_Berakhir\"><\/span><em>Hedging<\/em> Bisa Berubah Setelah <em>Options<\/em> Berakhir<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Dampak kedaluwarsa <em>options<\/em> tidak hanya berasal dari kontrak yang berakhir. Aktivitas <em>hedging<\/em> yang dilakukan pihak yang menjual <em>options<\/em> juga dapat berubah ketika kontrak tersebut selesai.<\/p>\n<p><em>Dealer<\/em> atau <em>market maker<\/em> biasanya menyesuaikan kepemilikan Bitcoin mereka untuk mengelola risiko dari <em>options<\/em> yang telah dijual. Sebagai contoh, ketika <em>dealer<\/em> memiliki posisi <em>short call<\/em> dan harga Bitcoin naik, mereka dapat membeli Bitcoin untuk mempertahankan posisi <em>hedging<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Aktivitas tersebut dapat menambah permintaan selama harga bergerak. Namun, setelah options kedaluwarsa, kebutuhan <em>hedging<\/em> terkait kontrak lama juga berakhir. Sebagian posisi dapat dipindahkan atau <em>roll over<\/em> ke kontrak periode berikutnya, sedangkan sebagian lainnya dapat ditutup.<\/p>\n<p>Karena itu, kedaluwarsa options dalam jumlah besar tidak selalu identik dengan penurunan atau kenaikan harga. Dampaknya bergantung pada posisi pasar, bagaimana <em>dealer<\/em> menyesuaikan <em>hedging<\/em>, dan apakah eksposur lama dipindahkan ke kontrak berikutnya.<\/p>\n<p>Kondisi ini membuat pergerakan Bitcoin menjelang dan setelah <em>settlement<\/em> menjadi salah satu hal yang perlu dipantau. Perubahan aktivitas <em>hedging<\/em> dapat mengubah dinamika likuiditas jangka pendek setelah kontrak senilai US$15,6 miliar tersebut keluar dari pasar.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Jumat_Jadi_Hari_Padat_bagi_Bitcoin\"><\/span>Jumat Jadi Hari Padat bagi Bitcoin<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Kadaluwarsa Bitcoin <em>options<\/em> bukan satu-satunya agenda yang berlangsung pada Jumat. Kontrak Deribit dijadwalkan selesai pada 08.00 UTC, kemudian kontrak Bitcoin futures September di CME akan mencapai settlement sekitar tujuh jam kemudian pada 15.00 UTC.<\/p>\n<p>Di antara kedua agenda tersebut, pasar juga akan menerima data ekonomi AS, termasuk <em>durable goods orders<\/em> dan pembacaan final sentimen konsumen University of Michigan untuk September. Data makro tersebut menjadi semakin relevan bagi aset berisiko setelah Federal Reserve menaikkan<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nanovest.io\/blog\/berita\/the-fed-naikkan-bunga-setelah-3-tahun-25579\/\"> target suku bunga ke kisaran 3,75%-4,00% pada 16 September<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Artinya, Bitcoin akan menghadapi beberapa katalis dalam rentang waktu yang relatif berdekatan: berakhirnya hedging dari <em>options<\/em> Deribit, rilis data ekonomi AS, dan settlement futures CME.<\/p>\n<p>Secara historis, September juga menjadi bulan yang tidak selalu mudah bagi Bitcoin. Decrypt mencatat aset tersebut menutup September dengan penurunan dalam delapan dari 13 tahun terakhir. Namun, pola historis tersebut tidak menentukan bagaimana Bitcoin akan bergerak tahun ini.<\/p>\n<p>Karena itu, fokus pasar setelah Jumat bukan hanya apakah Bitcoin bergerak mendekati level <em>max pain<\/em> US$76.000, tetapi juga bagaimana harga bereaksi setelah posisi <em>options<\/em> senilai US$15,6 miliar selesai dan sebagian aktivitas <em>hedging<\/em> yang menyertainya menghilang.<\/p>\n<div style=\"background: linear-gradient(135deg, #111827, #1F2937); padding: 24px; border-radius: 14px; margin: 28px 0; text-align: center; color: #ffffff;\">\n<p style=\"margin: 0 0 8px; font-size: 21px; line-height: 1.4; color: #ffffff;\"><strong>US$15,6 Miliar Options Berakhir, Pantau Bitcoin<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"max-width: 650px; margin: 0 auto 20px; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.7; color: #e5e7eb;\">Kedaluwarsa options, data ekonomi AS, dan settlement futures CME akan menjadi perhatian pasar. Pantau Bitcoin dan aset crypto lainnya melalui Nanovest.<\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; justify-content: center; gap: 10px;\"><a style=\"display: inline-flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; padding: 11px 18px; border-radius: 8px; background: #7C3AED; color: #ffffff; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/nanovest.io\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Investasi di Nanovest <\/a> <a style=\"display: inline-flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center; padding: 11px 18px; border-radius: 8px; background: #ffffff; color: #7c3aed; font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/nanovest.io\/blog\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Baca News &amp; Artikel Tips \u2192 <\/a><\/div>\n<p style=\"max-width: 650px; margin: 16px auto 0; font-size: 11px; line-height: 1.55; color: #9ca3af;\">Investasi memiliki risiko. Lakukan riset mandiri dan pertimbangkan profil risiko sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi. Nanovest terdaftar dan diawasi oleh OJK.<span style=\"color: #333333; font-size: 14px;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pasar aset digital bersiap menghadapi salah satu agenda derivatif terbesar pekan ini. Sekitar 182.000 BTC dalam kontrak Bitcoin options dengan nilai notional hampir US$15,6 miliar dijadwalkan kedaluwarsa di Deribit pada Jumat, 25 September 2026. Data Deribit yang dihimpun Decrypt menunjukkan kontrak tersebut terdiri dari sekitar 106.200 call options dan 75.900 put options, menghasilkan put-to-call ratio<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":25965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[80,38],"tags":[12,74,63,95,26,78],"class_list":["post-25964","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-berita","category-kripto","tag-aset-kripto","tag-berita","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-kripto"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.3 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pasar kripto menghadapi volatilitas saat Bitcoin options senilai $15,6 miliar jatuh tempo. 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